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What is Arising Phoenix?
That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.
“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
How to play Arising Phoenix
In fact, that 1982 R-J story stated that the neighborhood is “called ‘Naked City’ by Metro police officers.”
The way the phrase explodes onto the local paper, complete with context that the phrase was used by Metro, and the way it was used incessantly is all hard to ignore,” said Jeffrey Carlson, who publishes the Vintage Las Vegas history website, which features a post on Naked City.
Over the decades, Carlson said, he spoke to dozens of residents of the area in the ’60s and ’70s who “never heard the name.”
How to play Arising Phoenix
His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
