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The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”

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Under IGRA, gaming is generally prohibited on land taken into trust after 1988 unless it qualifies under specific exceptions. Scotts Valley claims its Vallejo property falls under the “restored lands” exception for federally recognized tribes.

While Interior agreed that Scotts Valley met requirements regarding its modern ties to the area and the timing of the acquisition, the department ultimately concluded the tribe failed to demonstrate a sufficiently significant historical connection to the land.

In court Friday, DOJ attorney Amber Dutton-Bynum argued that Scotts Valley could not meet the high threshold for irreparable harm required to secure an injunction. She maintained that the tribe knowingly chose to invest in the Preview Casino while its gaming status remained uncertain, as reported by Law360. Dutton-Bynum added that the modular buildings could easily be repurposed for non-gaming commercial uses if the prohibition stands.

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Like Betsson, Stake is trying to combine its global scale with a deep understanding of local markets in LatAm. It now holds local LatAm licences in Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Mexico, as well as the Province of Buenos Aires in Argentina.

Having received its licence in Peru in August 2024, Escobar argues Stake’s global scale delivers an advantage only when it is paired with a deep understanding of the Peruvian market and its players.

“We benefit from world-class technology, a market-leading product and one of the strongest brands in the industry, but success isn’t achieved simply by bringing a global platform into a new market,” Escobar says. “We’ve invested heavily in understanding Peruvian players, building local partnerships, working with creators, supporting football and tailoring our marketing and customer experience to local preferences.